India, facing the prospect of a drawn Kanpur Test against Bangladesh, find themselves in a precarious position in the WTC following Sri Lanka’s series victory over New Zealand.

Source: Hindustan Times

On Sunday, Sri Lanka clinched their third consecutive Test victory and a second in the series, achieving a historic 2-0 whitewash against New Zealand in Galle. Emulating their 2009 feat at home, Sri Lanka secured a dominant innings-and-154-run win on the fourth day of the second Test, strengthening their chances of qualifying for the ICC World Test Championship final at Lord’s next June. This victory has also placed India in a precarious position, as their second Test against Bangladesh in Kanpur faces a likely draw after days 2 and 3 were washed out due to rain.

India currently lead the WTC points table with a PCT of 71.67, having secured seven wins in 10 matches, including a victory in the opening Test match of the ongoing series against Bangladesh in Chennai last week. Meanwhile, Sri Lanka, following their 2-0 whitewash of Tim Southee’s New Zealand side, have jumped to third place with a PCT of 55.56. Australia hold the second spot with a PCT of 62.50.

Can Sri Lanka Deny India a Spot in the WTC Final?

Heading into the Kanpur Test against Bangladesh, India were strong favourites to secure a spot in the World Test Championship final next year, aiming for their third consecutive appearance. A victory in the second Test would have left them needing just three more wins to guarantee qualification, with eight matches remaining.

However, a potential draw in Kanpur could put India’s chances at risk. They would then not only need to whitewash New Zealand 3-0 in the upcoming home series next month, but also win at least two out of the five matches in the crucial Border-Gavaskar series against Australia later this year. Sri Lanka, riding high after their recent 2-0 sweep against New Zealand, could still deny India a place in the final depending on their own performance.

Sri Lanka, meanwhile, are slated to make two Tests in South Africa and two at home against Australia in their remaining WTC fixtures. If the Asian side whitewashes the Proteas, they are almost guaranteed a spot in the final. Although, the chances of that happening are low, given their record in South Africa. In their seven visits to the Rainbow Nation, Sri Lanka have managed just three wins in 17 matches, which although includes a historic 2-0 whitewash in 2019.

If Sri Lanka can manage a 1-1 draw in South Africa and sweep Australia at home, they will achieve a PCT of 61.54. Meanwhile, if South Africa win both their series against Bangladesh and Pakistan by a 2-0 margin, they will attain a PCT of 61.11. This scenario sets up a potential Sri Lanka-South Africa final in the WTC, but only if Australia defeat India 4-1 in the Border-Gavaskar series.

If India lose 0-4 to Australia, the Aussies will finish with a PCT of 62.28. Even if India lose 1-3, they will also end up with a PCT of 62.28. In both cases, Sri Lanka would advance to the WTC final.

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